Vote of No Confidence in Papua New Guinea's May Parliamentary Session

Papua New Guinea's (PNG) politics is lighting up with a whirlwind of activity leading up to May 2024. The Opposition, under the leadership of Douglas Tomuriesa, has declared its intention to table a fresh motion of no confidence against the incumbent Prime Minister, James Marape, in the parliamentary session scheduled for May 28. 

This is not the first time such a motion has been tabled, with previous attempts providing valuable context for this latest development.

The Power of the Vote of No Confidence (VONC)

The VONC is a potent instrument at the disposal of the opposition, enabling them to question the authority of the current Prime Minister. The forthcoming motion on May 28 marks the fourth such notice lodged by the PNG Opposition. But, this time, the nomination of East Sepik Governor Allan Bird as the potential Prime Minister is NOT made clear. 

The Acting Speaker, Koni Iguan, has been instrumental in this process. He has guided Tomuriesa to present a new motion, signifying that the opposition has the Speaker's approval to proceed with the vote. This counsel aligns with the parliamentary protocol, which mandates that the Private Business Committee (PBC) convenes on Wednesday 29th May 2024 to review all motion notices.

Read about: How the VONC process and procedures are prescribed by the Constitution

The Importance of Timing

The timing of the submission is pivotal. If the VONC notice is lodged on May 28, a Tuesday, the PBC is likely to deliberate on it the next day, May 29. Conversely, if the notice is submitted on May 29, the PBC would probably discuss it on the subsequent Wednesday, June 5. Once the committee approves the notice, it will be handed over to the clerk for presentation to the parliament. 

PNG's political climate is volatile and subject to rapid changes. The opposition's move to table a new motion of no confidence could further unsettle the country's political stability. This development coincides with a period of uncertainty for Marape's leadership, as government MPs anticipate the resolution of internal issues within the ruling Pangu Party. 

The potential consequences of this ongoing political instability, such as impacts on the economy and, infrastructure and social programs, are significant and warrant close attention.

Is Pangu Pati Intact?

Despite denials from prominent political figures, Deputy Prime Minister John Rosso and Finance Minister Rainbo Paita have categorically refuted any internal discord, dismissing such allegations as the handiwork of "fake social media spin doctors". 

They asserted that the Pangu Party is not up for grabs and challenged critics to wait until 2027 if they wished to question the party's authority. They also encouraged the opposition to propose alternative national policies. 

Foreign Affairs Minister Justin Tkatchenko recently reinforced the party's position, asserting that the government remains robust under Marape's leadership. However, there are dissenting voices within the Pangu Party, suggesting potential cracks in its facade. 

Conclusion

The impending VONC in PNG's May Parliamentary session is a crucial event in the nation's political landscape. It underscores the dynamic and fluid nature of PNG politics, where power dynamics can shift swiftly, and leadership roles are frequently contested. 

As the VONC date draws near, all eyes are on the PNG Parliament, keenly observing the unfolding political manoeuvres. 

The question on everyone's mind is: "Will the current Prime Minister, James Marape, defy the odds and overcome the looming Vote of No-Confidence against him and his government?" Only time will tell.

Vote of No Confidence in Papua New Guinea 2024: Requirements & Procedures

In Papua New Guinea (PNG), the mechanisms for holding the Prime Minister accountable and potentially removing them from office are outlined in the country's Constitution, Section 145 (screenshot).

(Important: This article is a simple analysis of Section 145 on the VoNC in PNG and the election of a new prime minister. Written in a simple style for our readers to understand how it - the VoNC - works.

Meanwhile, we are looking forward to giving it similar coverage on MAY 28! - CLICK HERE TO READ THE LATEST ON THE MAY/JUNE PARLIAMENT SITTING.

While a vote of no confidence (VoNC) is one such mechanism, there are several others, including:

• dismissal for breaching the Leadership Code, 
• removal on health grounds, 
• suspension pending investigation, and 
• resignation, death, or court-invalidated election of the Prime Minister.

PNG's Constitution, Section 145 (screenshot)

Key Processes and Procedures for a Vote of No Confidence

A VoNC motion in PNG follows a specific set of processes and procedures to ensure transparency and accountability within the parliamentary system. These include:

• 1. Expressed Motion of No Confidence: The motion must explicitly state its nature as a vote of no confidence in the named Prime Minister, adhering to the constitutional provisions.

• 2. Naming of Alternate Prime Minister: The motion must identify an alternate Prime Minister as per constitutional requirements.

• 3. Signature of Mover and Seconder: The motion requires signatures from both the individual moving the motion and the person seconding it, following parliamentary standing orders.

• 4. Support of Members of Parliament: Signatures from not less than one-tenth of the Members of Parliament who support the motion are necessary.

• 5. Exclusion of Mover and Seconder as Supporters: It's crucial to maintain the distinction between those moving and seconding the motion and those supporting it.

• 6. Correct Electorate Name and Signature Column: Accuracy in stating the electorate's name and proper completion of the proposal form are essential.

Check out the latest updates here: ROAD TO PNG VoNC 2024

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PRIME MINISTERS OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA 1975 - 2024

Process Timeline: 2019 Vote of No Confidence

The 2019 VoNC in PNG provides a clear example of the process, including the timeline and duration of events:

1. Expressed Motion of No Confidence

April 11th: Finance Minister James Marape's resignation set the stage for the VoNC, indirectly expressing a lack of confidence in the existing leadership.

2. Naming of Alternate Prime Minister

May 6th: Laguna Camp named James Marape as the Alternative Prime Minister, a crucial step in the VoNC process.

3. Signature of Mover and Seconder

May 7th: Parliament convened to table the VoNC motion. Signatures of the mover (Marape) and seconder played the initial role in steamrolling the formal process.

The parliamentary session ensured the correct completion of the proposal form, including accurate details regarding the electorate's name and the appropriate signature columns.

4. Support of Members of Parliament

 May 2nd - 28th: Various party splits, resignations, and realignments occurred, influencing the support base for the VoNC motion. The People's National Congress (PNC) and Pangu Pati members played crucial roles in expressing or changing their support.

5. Exclusion of Mover and Seconder as Supporters

The distinction between those moving and seconding the motion (Marape and others) and those supporting it was maintained throughout the process.

6. Process Duration

May 28th: The VoNC voting session was initially scheduled for 7 days but extended to 21 days. This duration allowed for a comprehensive deliberation on the motion.

7. Constitutional Requirements Compliance

Throughout May: Various legal and constitutional elements were in play, such as the Attorney General applying for a Stay Order on the VoNC motion to uphold the rule of law.

8. Outcome and New Prime Minister Election

May 29th: The culmination of the process resulted in Peter O'Neill's resignation as Prime Minister and the election of James Marape as the new Prime Minister, securing 101 votes.

From the parliamentary session convened on May 7th to the final vote on May 29th, the Vote of No Confidence process in Papua New Guinea spanned a total of 23 days.

Throughout this period, various political manoeuvres, including resignations, party splits, and coalition changes, influenced the outcome of the VoNC.

To see the FULL VoNC events of 2019 recorded by dates,  CLICK HERE

Conclusion

The VoNC process in Papua New Guinea, enshrined in the Constitution, serves as a crucial pillar for holding government leaders accountable and ensuring democratic governance. 

PNG's parliamentary system (the Westminster System, maintains transparency and upholds the rule of law, as demonstrated by the events surrounding the 2019 VoNC. No government or prime minister is immune to a VoNC.

Road to Vote of No Confidence 2024: Updates and Events

Since independence, only two PNG PMs lasted five years: Somare (2002-2007) and O'Neill (2012-2017). Can Marape, facing the historical odds, defy the trend and become the third?

The Pangu-led coalition government's grace period expires on Friday 9th of February 2024 but is the Marape/Rosso administration truly "rock solid," as its leaders claimed.  Or will it crumble under the pressure of a potential vote of no confidence? 

As the 9th of February approaches, cracks and concerns have emerged. The first PNG parliament sitting for 2024 is on Tuesday 13th February, 2024. PNG Insight will update this page as the political drama unfolds, so bookmark it and stay tuned for the latest.

It's important to remember that a vote of no confidence is a lengthy process (Here are the events of the 2019 VoNC on PNG Insight), with the government often using its powers to frustrate, block, or even defer it. Here is what will happen for a VoNC to take place:

• Lobbying for Formation of an 'Alternate Govt' 
• The tabling of the VoNC,
• Consolidation of numbers, and
• Final VoNC session.

CLICK HERE TO READ THE LATEST ON THE MAY/JUNE PARLIAMENT SITTING.

Is a vote of no confidence looming in 2024? 

Lobbying Intensifies: As the February 13th 2024 vote of no confidence in PNG approaches, the days leading up to the parliament sitting date, and including the weekend are critical. 

Parallels are drawn to the 2019 vote, where MPs switched allegiances between the government and alternate camps at the last minute. So, given the fluidity of PNG politics, nothing is impossible and money and ministry privileges speak volumes.

We urge MPs to resist the influence of development funds (DSIP/PSIP), Connect PNG, and government contracts. Their decisions must be guided solely by the best interests of the country.

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Read about the requirements and procedure for a VoNC in PNG.

Key events in PNG 2024

With this in mind, let's start with Black Wednesday, January 10th, and other major political developments leading up to the potential vote. Here are the defining moments in 2024:

January 10: Black Wednesday

Utter chaos erupted in Port Moresby as news of a pay cut for public servants coincided with a police strike. While protests and looting rocked the capital, dubbed "Black Wednesday" in its aftermath, the PNG government quietly authorised a K350 million warrant for the Pangu Party's flagship program, Connect PNG. 

January 11: Riot Aftermath & Sacking of Department Heads

Nationwide unease gripped businesses, prompting precautions. Lae and Mt Hagen cities reported controlled crowd gatherings. The Pangu-led Marape/Rosso government declared a 14-day State of Emergency and investigations into the Black Wednesday riot. 

Four high-ranking officials were suspended for the emergency's duration: 

• Police Commissioner David Manning, 
• DPM Secretary Taies Sansan, 
• Finance Secretary Sam Penias, and 
• Treasury Secretary Andrew Oaeke.

January 12: MP Showed Dissent 

Hiri-Koiari MP Keith Iduhu resigned from the Marape-Rosso government, criticizing the government's inaction in addressing the current situation. Additionally, Chuave MP James Nomane called for Prime Minister James Marape's resignation.

JANUARY 14: MP Questioned Connect PNG Funds Released on Black Wednesday

On January 14th, Hon. James Donald questioned the Department of Treasury and Department of Finance concerning the release of K350 million in Connect PNG warrants. 

The alleged release happened on Wednesday, January 10th, now nicknamed "Black Wednesday." This information has been confirmed by the Minister for Works, Solan Mirisim, 2 days later.

January 15: PNG Govt Monitoring Social Media Accounts

The PNG government issued warnings to social media users and announced increased monitoring of both mainstream and social media platforms. 

This move has been met with concern by some, who view it as an attempt to silence media organizations and restrict freedom of speech.

Screenshot: Post Courier (accessed 27th January 2024)

January 16: Governors Irate Over Provincial Grant Cuts

Morobe Governor Luther Wenge urged Prime Minister James Marape to convene a prompt Pangu Party meeting to address internal leadership concerns. He proposed placing the party leadership on the table for discussion.

In a separate development, a frustrated New Ireland Governor, Sir Julius Chan, demanded the removal of Treasurer Ian Ling-Stuckey from office, citing a K40 million reduction in his 2024 budget.

The provincial governors, as a whole, are expressing discontent over cuts in their government grants.

16 JANUARY: An angry New Ireland Governor Sir Julius Chan called on PM James Marape to sack Treasurer Ian Ling-Stuckey for cutting K40 million from his 2024 Budget.

The provincal governors have seen cuts in provincial grants.

Gov. Allan Bird on cuts: https://t.co/BHpKPSYwnn

— P.N.G. Insight (@PNG_Insight) January 27, 2024

JANUARY 17: Top Cop Sidelined

Top cop Anthony Wagambie Jnr was sidelined by Acting Police Commissioner Donald Yamasombi.

January 18: Cabinet reshuffle. 

6 new ministers:

1. Koroba-Kopiago, William Bando, Coffee
2. Nipa-Kutubu, Dr. William Joseph, Defence
3. Popondetta, Richard Masere, Key Const Offices
4. Kundiawa-Gembogl, Muguwa Dilu, Mining
5. Obura-Wonenara, John Boito, Agri
6. Esa’ala MP, J. Maladina, Petroleum 

Foreign Affairs Minister Justin T. was reinstated. Mr. Tkatchenko stepped down amidst controversy surrounding the UK trip with his daughter in May 2023, funded by PNG taxpayers. The trip & a subsequent viral video featuring his daughter generated significant public criticism.

January 19: Ministerial Positions Announced

• Treasury Minister Ling-Stuckey was relegated to PM's assistant, while the PM, James Marape, assumed the Treasury role.
• Tkatchenko was reinstated to Foreign Affairs.
• Split Energy & Petroleum ministry; Finance & Planning ministry also split.
• New Key Cont. Offices ministry established.
• Sports ministry announcement pending.

January 26: Senior Minister in the Marape/Rosso Govt Resigned

Sinesine Yongomugl MP Kerenga Kua, former Petroleum & Energy Minister, has resigned as Minister for Energy, a portfolio created after the split (and reshuffle on January 18th. Citing the dubious "motivations" behind his demotion from Petroleum Minister to the lesser role of Energy Minister, his emphasis also lies on the broader national interests at stake.

February 1: Paraka Co-accused in UBS Saga Name Names

JACOB Yafai (former Deputy Secretary of Finance)  co-accused of convicted lawyer Paul Paraka has revealed the names of senior Ministers in the current government that allegedly orchestrated the payments of millions of kina to Paul Paraka's lawyers. 

The former Deputy Secretary of the Finance Department named the former Minister for Treasury (now PNG PM and a/Treasurer) and former Treasurer, Don Polye, as ministers under Peter O'Neill directed him to pay the Paraka Lawyers.

Paraka was sentenced to 20 years in prison for misappropriating K162 million (Post Courier)

 

Post Courier 01/02/2024

FEBRUARY 2: James Marape Alleged to Have Given Approval as Finance Minister

Prime Minister James Marape responded to the accusations by former Deputy Finance Secretary Jacob Yafai. Yafai, who stands as a co-accused alongside convicted Lawyer Paul Paraka, alleged Marape's involvement in the matter. The accusations centred around Marape's purported directive regarding payments related to Paraka's firm. 

Despite Marape's rebuttal, citing his efforts to prevent said payments, questions arose regarding the authenticity of his claims. This response highlights a significant development in an ongoing investigation, shedding light on potential impropriety at the highest levels of government.

Post Courier Reported 'Marape denies allegations...'

FEBRUARY 4: Another MP resigned from Marape/Rosso Govt

William Hagahuno, Member of Parliament for Kainantu, has resigned as an MP on the government side and joined the opposition "Alternate team." This news comes amidst reports of former PNG PM and Ialibu Pangia MP Peter O'Neill and his team holding a joint press conference today.

FEBRUARY 8: Two More MPs Resigned from the PANGU-led Government

The firebrand Governor of East Sepik Province, Allan Bird, and Member for Bulolo, Sam Basil Jr, held a press conference and announced their resignation from the Marape/Rosso government. 

The announcement came at the back of the PNG Prime Minister, James Marape, visit to Australia.

FEBRUARY 9: Opposition Leader resigned

Prime Minister James Marape Returned from Australia.

Opposition Leader Joseph Lelang and PNC Party strongman resigned as the leader of the opposition and from the PNG party citing a lack of consultations in meetings leading up to the VoNC. Post courier report

FEBRUARY 10 - 11: Pangu Pati Conference - Show of Solidarity 

Pangu Pati Strengthens Base with Two New Members. The ruling Pangu Pati has solidified its position in Papua New Guinea's Parliament with the addition of two new members, bringing its total to 56. Francis Alua, MP for Salt-Karamui Nomane, and Raphael Tonpi, MP for Mendi Munihu, officially joined Pangu Pati today.

Both MPs previously belonged to opposition parties – Alua with the PNG National Party and Tonpi with the United Labour Party. Their decision to switch allegiances follows their respective party leaders' move to the opposition benches.

FEBRUARY 13: Parliament Sitting (Motion on Vote of No Confidence 2024 filed)

The first Parliament sitting of 2024 started at 2 pm.

Opposition files the VoNC with the office of the acting Speaker. The opposition nominated Allan Bird as the Alternate Prime Minister.

FEBRUARY 14: James Marape challenges Allan Bird's Nomination as the 'Alternate Prime Minister 

The government has submitted an application to the Supreme Court regarding the constitutionality of the recent vote. The government seeks clarification from the Supreme Court on the eligibility of Allan Bird, an independent Member of Parliament, who has been nominated as an opposition candidate for the position of Prime Minister in Papua New Guinea.

FEBRUARY 15: Third Day Parliament Sitting - Govt Remained Steadfast

On February 15, during the third day of Parliament sitting, the government stood firm, contesting the appointment of Alternate PNG, Allan Bird, in court. 

Entry to the chambers was restricted due to a power outage.

Despite opposition MPs briefly boycotted the 'Vote of Confidence on the Prime Minister', debates ensued.

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Vote of No Confidence PNG: 5 Possible Moves to Deter Successful Vote of Confidence for James Marape

The opposition pick for the Prime Minister of Papua New Guinea's position in the coming Vote of No Confidence on the People's National Congress Party leader is a strategic move. The pick further solidifies the number at Laguna. 

Check out the analysis on the latest on VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE HERE

UPDATE: VoNC to take place on the 28th MAY - 21 DAYS after tabling of Motion of VoNC

Mr Bryan Krammar MP hinted in his Krammar Report that the selection would be done by a secret ballot. That means that Mr Marape was selected among one or two others. However, he can be described as a driving force behind the Motion of Vote of No Confidence against the present prime minister.

James Marape's Strengths

Mr Marape had been the finance minister - the moneyman - for 8 years under the PNC Party. Mr Marape was a close confidante of PM Peter O'Neill. 

He knows how the prime minister spends the country's money. He knows how, when and where he gets money since 2012. 

He also knows Peter O'Neill massive investments deals past and present. And, probably, he knows better the PNG and Papua LNG projects deals.

He cited 'trust issues' as the main reason for resigning. We may NOT know what the real causes of distrust are. In hindsight, the PNG/Hela LNG project benefits and the new Papua LNG project deals were seen to be the main 'push factors'. 

Make no mistake, Marape could just be the best man in this political manoeuvring!

Mr Marape is a young leader/MP among the likes of Mr Bryan Krammer, Garry Juffa and Alan Bird. He also has the admiration of the old MPs like Kerenga Kua, Sir Mekere, Dr Marat, et. al. 

What is wrong with Prime Minister Peter O'Neill?

Definitely, no sane minister will leave the comfort of their perks and privileges and move to form a new government. No governor will leave the PNC party if 'the grass is still greener'. 

Something is not right and it is serious. 

Apparently, the defecting PNC members mentioned 'trust and confidence' issues in the PM has deteriorated lately. Understandably, a government formed by a coalition partners makes up the National Executive Councils (NEC). And any economic, investment, social, development or political decision MUST be a compromise - a decision based on parties consensus.

Unfortunately, many defecting PNC MPs including its coalition partners saw an absence of leadership based on respect and mutual parties consensus. 

Motion of Vote of Confidence May 7th 2019

The key to a successful change of government is not the numbers. ( I beg to differ here). It's money (the root of all evil?)!

In fact, the number is the result of hidden deals, manoeuvring, phone calls and sweet talks. Expect the unexpected, right?

Young and mature leaders moving for the change in the prime minister are not used to sweet-talking. Many of them are straight talkers. At present, it seems only the forward-thinking MPs will change the government and we need 60 of them.

Unfortunately, two ministers moved in between camps namely Mr Douglas Tomuriesa Member for Kiriwina Goodenough and East New Britain Governor Nakikus Konga. Mr Tomuriesa openly rebuked the leadership of the PNC government but returned to their camp the next day.

Do not trust what comes out of every MP's mouth. Like a dog that eats its vomit, an MP walks right back on his words with the tails between his legs. 

We never know until the Motion of Vote of No Confidence is tabled in parliament and voted. There are 7 days from the time of Motion of VoNC when the real VoNC takes place. So, stay strong. (Update: the parliament privilege committee extended the voting session for 21 days - VoNC session on the 28th May 2019)

5 Possible Outcomes of VoNC 2019

Several moves can jeopardise the impending Vote of No Confidence against Prime Minister Peter O'Neill and his divisive PNC party. 

• Big promises and large sums of money at play

MPs jumping ships. Some MPs (not all) like to hear sweet promises and the smell of money. 

It could be hard for political yoyos to avoid such 'pull factors'. The only way is to pause and reflect on the last 8 years of each MPs experience. 

And, make the decision based on the reasoning rather than emotion.

• Dealy tactic on legal interpretation on VoNC 2019

This is highly likely in the event that the current government spots any irregularities in either the opposition's PM choice or the technical aspect of VoNC. PM will seek the legal interpretation of and validate technical aspects of the VoNC 2019 if there is any chance of delaying the event.

This tactic was used on many occasions in the past by the government. Unfortunately, it further throws decent on public opinion about government. 

• Speaker siding with the government 

The Speaker is with the government. His neutral stand in the event of a VoNC on PNC government is the key to tabling the Motion of VoNC successfully. 

Not entertaining motion or citing some minor technical issues can frustrate the opposition attempt on the VoNC. 

• Prime Minister Resigning 

The prime minister will not resign. He has the power strongly welded in his hand. In fact, if he resigns, his ability to control the MPs also diminishes. He will not resign.

•  Leverage the loses in opposing camps 

Gaining number is what matters between the 7th and 14th May 2019. Of all the MPs at work, there are Magnets, Dealers, Golden Oldies, Straight Shooters, Whisperers, Power Brokers and King Makers. This is how the 111 MPs can be classified.

• Magnets are the prime minister candidates seen by the people and MPs as potential leaders; 
• Dealers are also called the briefcase carriers who will do anything to open it; 
• Golden Oldies are dinosaurs of PNG politics; 
• Straight shooters are the young MPs who want a better future for PNG; 
• Whisperers are the shadowy politicians, especially the MPs who did not make their stance clear yet. 

The next two classes of MPs are a class of their own: 

• ↣Power Brokers are different from Dealers - Power Brokers leaders. They have great listening skills. When they speak, other MPs listen in return; and
• ↣King Makers are a combination of Magnets and Power Brokers. They are good listeners. Their actions are too selfless. 

On this note, you can classify your MP as a Magnet, Dealer, Golden Oldy, Straight Shooter, Whisperer, Power Broker and King Maker.

⏪A replay of the events leading up to PNG VoNC 2019

Tuesday 7th May 2019 (Motion of VoNC)

At the ring of the bell at 2 PM, the speaker enters the parliament and takes his seat. He'll acknowledge the motion for Vote of No Confidence. 

Parliament will extend for 1 week and resume on the 14th May for the actual VoNC to take place. (Update: the parliament privilege committee extended the voting session for 21 days - VoNC session to take place on the 28th May 2019)

Monday 6th May 2019

- Laguna Camp named Hon. James Marape as Alternative PM

- Nine former Pangu Pati members, led by Bulolo MP, Sam Basil have joined the Melanesian Alliance Party.

- Hon. Douglas Tomuriesa Member for Kiriwina Goodenough returns to Crown after spending time at Laguna.

- East New Britain Governor Nakikus Konga rejoins his party in the PNC led coalition despite turning up at Laguna camp this morning.

- Enga Governor, Peter Ipatas, joins Laguna camp

- Parliament Speaker Hon. Job Pomat just arrived in Crown Plaza camp.

Sunday 5th May 2019

- All 5 Sandaun Province MPs including the Governor, Tony Wouwou, are now at the Laguna camp. They are Belden Namah (Vanimo-Green), Joe Sungi (Nuku), Patrick Pruaitch (Aitape-Lumi) Solan Mirisim (Telefomin).

Saturday 4th May 2019 

- Deputy Prime Minister Charles Abel in the company of a lone Milne Bay governor (and after 5 hours delay) announced his continued support for Peter O’Neill

- Laguna camp announced 57 MPs in camp and planned to review all agreements concluded recently by the O'Neill-Abel Government.

Friday, 3rd May 2019

- Douglas Tomuriesa, Member for Kiriwina-Goodenough, urges more Papuan MPs to join their cause.

- Member for Telefomin, Solan Mirisim, pushing for young leaders to make a stand.

- Dr Puka Temu, Member for Abau Open, joins the growing list of MPs dissatisfied with the Prime Minister. Sir Puka Temu said they have made a decision to move because of internal disagreements over how the country is being managed.

- All 15 Pangu MPs have resigned. 7 MPs have joined the 'Laguna' camp which now claims to have 51 members in total. It is unclear, what the Basil-led faction is planning to do at this stage. 

Thursday 2nd May 2019

- The People's National Congress says the party has resolved "to back" Peter O'Neill as Prime Minister in the coming vote of no confidence. The party posted photos on its Facebook page claiming 38 members are intact. The caucus meeting initially planned for 6 May was moved to 1 May to counter moves by the opposition and defecting MPs. 

More updates to come. 

Monday 29th April 2019

- Tari Pori MP, James Marape, has announced that he is officially leaving the People’s National Congress citing a lack of confidence in PNC party leader and PM O'Neill

- Manus Governor, Charlie Benjamin and Okapa MP, Saki Soloma have also announced their formal exit from The People's National Congress Party.

Sunday 28th April 2019

- Prime Minister, Peter O'Neill, has arrived back in the country from China

Friday 26th April 2019 

- Governors Sir Peter Ipatas (ENGA), William Powi (SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS) and Phillip Undialu (HELA) resign from PNC

Vote of No Confidence: Is Papua New Guinea Likely to See a Change of Government?

The stability of political parties in Papua New Guinea has been a topic of discussion lately, with many people believing that it would translate to stability for the government. 

However, the breakdown of the party membership has caused a complete breakdown of the party system, especially among the three major political parties that came in after the 2012 election. 

This situation has led to talks of a potential Vote of No Confidence (VoNC) against Prime Minister Peter O’Neill.

Check out the analysis on the latest on VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE HERE

Showing Original Party Membership

Members Deserting Party Leaders

More than half of Triumph Heritage Empowerment (THE) party, National Alliance (NA) party, and Papua New Guinea (PNG) party members have deserted their party leaders, with their members scattered throughout Parliament, from high-ranking government ministers to the opposition and from middle benchers to backbenchers.

Recent Developments

A report by the Post Courier revealed that 65 Members of Parliament (MPs) showed support for the Prime Minister at Paddy’s Bar on 9th February 2015. 

The report also indicated that three coalition parties had renewed their support for the Prime Minister and his People’s National Congress (27) amidst speculation of a VoNC. 

These parties were the People’s Progress Party (8), United Resources Party (7), and National Alliance (8).

Questions Arise

The leader of the People’s Party, Peter Ipatas, has not yet indicated his commitment. It is clear that his party has been with the Prime Minister all along, so there is no need to declare his support publicly. 

However, it would be right for the Enga governor to declare his party’s support for Peter O’Neill publicly like others have done.

The second biggest party, THE, whose deputy leader is Deputy Prime Minister, did not indicate its support for the Prime Minister. 

Obviously, Don Polye and Peter O’Neill are not on good terms, so there is no need for him to declare his support. This situation raises the question of where this places DPM, Leo Dion, who is still a THE party member.

Another question that arises is why the founder of the National Alliance party, Sir Michael Somare, was sitting on the middle bench during the recent parliament sitting. 

It is obvious that despite his reassurance, Hon Patrick Pruaitch does not have backing from Sir Michael Somare and Hon Kerenga Kua.

Independent MPs and Small Political Parties

There are 14 independent MPs who can move about at whim. Some have held ministerial portfolios, others joined larger political parties, but most were ‘scattered’ about with no party affiliation. 

Similarly, there are 14 political parties with less than 3 MPs. Those who have held ministerial portfolios are bound to stay foot, while others who have joined the government to collect Services Improvement Program funds are likely to be the first ones to jump ships if the tide turns.

The Unknown 46 MPs

A significant point to note is that 46 MPs were not with the group that pledged support for the Prime Minister. 

It is unclear who they are, and any insider will not put names to numbers, making the ‘number game’ shrouded in secrecy. Parties supporting the Prime Minister, including his own PNC party, have 54 members. Most of them would have turned up. 

It is worth noting that Peter Ipatas’ People’s Party has not publicly reaffirmed its support for the Prime Minister.

Conclusion: Peter O’Neill's Future

It is clear that Peter O’Neill cannot relax, as his 30 months of comfort and safety have expired. His greatest enemies may be his closest friends, as some MPs are with him just because of the

Vote of No Confidence in PNG Prime Minister -- Updates

Since Alotau Accord, the prime minister of Papua New Guinea has enjoyed unprecedented support from government Members. This is cemented by the allocation of funds and privileges enjoyed by MPs supporting the government.

Check out the analysis on the latest on VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE HERE

Lately, an EMTV report cited that 10 MPs are planning a move to opposition boosting its numbers from 8 to 18. This is short of the original 25 opposition members. Most of them – 22 altogether – have moved to join the Government when they knew they would not receive their District Service Improvement Funds if they had remained with the Opposition.

Many thought that these MPs have compromised their ability to think and act as leaders when they were lured by money. Three men remained standing: Belden Namah, Sam Basil and Allan Marat. They did not trade their leadership status and their people for money.

On the other hand, politicians have the right to practise what they perceived to be in the best interest of their people. Who are we to judge?

It has been twenty-seven months of smooth sailing for Peter O’Neill when compared to previous governments, where power struggles and government instability were major issues. But, lots of things have happened during the O’Neill-Dion rule, both good and bad: loans from Exim Bank and UBS, Infrastructure developments, completion of PNG LNG project, sacking of Attorney General and Treasurer, Task Force Sweep Warrant of Arrest on Peter O’Neill, his latest referral to a Leadership Tribunal and many more.

It is important to note that the prime minister in the 9^th parliament has his work cut out to remain for the full 30 months. The signing of the Alotau Accord and the extension of the grace period from 18 to 30 months has made it possible. Unless this period is tested and proven to be illegal by the Courts, Peter O’Neill will remain prime minister whether one likes it or not.

So, how long can PNC and its coalition partners enjoy the grace period? Sadly not long. O’Neill-Dion government has only 3 months before a vote of no confidence it called. That means that a motion of vote of no confidence on Peter O’Neill is likely to happen in February or March next year, 2015.

The government is not concerned at the moment as it is enjoying stability from within PNC and coalition partners. This remains to be seen in just 3 months. Meanwhile, Peter O’Neill may have to keep his friends close, but his enemies closer.