The stability of political parties in Papua New Guinea has been a topic of discussion lately, with many people believing that it would translate to stability for the government.
However, the breakdown of the party membership has caused a complete breakdown of the party system, especially among the three major political parties that came in after the 2012 election.
This situation has led to talks of a potential Vote of No Confidence (VoNC) against Prime Minister Peter O’Neill.
Check out the analysis on the latest on VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE HERE
Members Deserting Party Leaders
More than half of Triumph Heritage Empowerment (THE) party, National Alliance (NA) party, and Papua New Guinea (PNG) party members have deserted their party leaders, with their members scattered throughout Parliament, from high-ranking government ministers to the opposition and from middle benchers to backbenchers.
Recent Developments
A report by the Post Courier revealed that 65 Members of Parliament (MPs) showed support for the Prime Minister at Paddy’s Bar on 9th February 2015.
The report also indicated that three coalition parties had renewed their support for the Prime Minister and his People’s National Congress (27) amidst speculation of a VoNC.
These parties were the People’s Progress Party (8), United Resources Party (7), and National Alliance (8).
Questions Arise
The leader of the People’s Party, Peter Ipatas, has not yet indicated his commitment. It is clear that his party has been with the Prime Minister all along, so there is no need to declare his support publicly.
However, it would be right for the Enga governor to declare his party’s support for Peter O’Neill publicly like others have done.
The second biggest party, THE, whose deputy leader is Deputy Prime Minister, did not indicate its support for the Prime Minister.
Obviously, Don Polye and Peter O’Neill are not on good terms, so there is no need for him to declare his support. This situation raises the question of where this places DPM, Leo Dion, who is still a THE party member.
Another question that arises is why the founder of the National Alliance party, Sir Michael Somare, was sitting on the middle bench during the recent parliament sitting.
It is obvious that despite his reassurance, Hon Patrick Pruaitch does not have backing from Sir Michael Somare and Hon Kerenga Kua.
Independent MPs and Small Political Parties
There are 14 independent MPs who can move about at whim. Some have held ministerial portfolios, others joined larger political parties, but most were ‘scattered’ about with no party affiliation.
Similarly, there are 14 political parties with less than 3 MPs. Those who have held ministerial portfolios are bound to stay foot, while others who have joined the government to collect Services Improvement Program funds are likely to be the first ones to jump ships if the tide turns.
The Unknown 46 MPs
A significant point to note is that 46 MPs were not with the group that pledged support for the Prime Minister.
It is unclear who they are, and any insider will not put names to numbers, making the ‘number game’ shrouded in secrecy. Parties supporting the Prime Minister, including his own PNC party, have 54 members. Most of them would have turned up.
It is worth noting that Peter Ipatas’ People’s Party has not publicly reaffirmed its support for the Prime Minister.
Conclusion: Peter O’Neill's Future
It is clear that Peter O’Neill cannot relax, as his 30 months of comfort and safety have expired. His greatest enemies may be his closest friends, as some MPs are with him just because of the